In <B69BA4BD.1693%yvesberia@earthlink.net>, Berry Ives wrote:
> Digital SLRs that have maybe half the required resolution now cost about
> $3K.
>
> If that technology progresses at anything like what CPUs have, I think 10
> years is rather ample to eliminate, say, 90% of the 35mm film market. That
> said, I recently bought a Contax film camera and am about to buy a film
> scanner. (%~~/> ~~~~~~~~........
>
I think we are tending to judge the market by our own standards. I am not
interested in a digital camera *at the moment* because the resolution is not
up to my standards for the price that I can afford. However for the ordinary
member of the public they are already "good enough". Remember most people's
standards for photos are pretty low, as you can see be looking at most "happy
snaps" (or home videos). All they want is reasonable pictures that are
recognizable, and they hardly ever have a print made bigger then the 6x4's
they get when they have the film processed. They don't have 10x12's made and
then look at them through a lens to see how fine the grain is! And they
_never_ use slides or black & white; too inconvenient or old fashioned.
I also feel that the memory chips, flash cards or what ever don't hold enough
high quality shots for the price. When I go on an overseas trip I shoot 10-12
35mm films, and this would need several flash cards or memory sticks, at a
heavy cost. Many photographers take several times this number of frames.
However the ordinary public don't take that many shots. There is a joke in
the photo processing business that the average punters film has a Christmas
tree in the first frame and also in the last one - that is one film lasts
them all year!
What has this to so with us? Well such people make up 95% of the photographic
market, and their needs (or what the advertisers tell them they need) will
drive the industry. Before too long you might find that you can't get
non-digital supplies, because "there is no demand for them". You might still
be able to get such stuff as film and photo paper from professional
suppliers, at "professional prices", but the photography stores we use now
may have gone out of business. If you don't believe me, try to get old-style
flash bulbs, glass plates, or films other than APS, 35mm and 120.
I hope that it doesn't come to this, but I am rather afraid that we may have
to go digital eventually, whether we like it or not.
Brian Rumary, England
